The U.S.-China agreement to suspend reciprocal port fees for one year, effective 2025/11/10, will expire on 2026/11/9. If no new long-term arrangement is reached by then, the global liner shipping industry could face billions of dollars in cost restructuring pressures. Shipping lines may need to significantly adjust their fleet deployment, route planning, and pricing strategies. Foreign trade companies should closely monitor policy developments and prepare for potential fluctuations in logistics costs.
The one-year U.S.-China agreement to suspend reciprocal port fees, effective from 2026 11, 9 through 2025 11, 10, will officially expire. This milestone marks a critical cost restructuring point for the global liner shipping industry. If no new long-term arrangement is reached by then, the previously suspended port-related fees may resume, imposing billions of dollars in additional costs on the global shipping market.
Over the past year, the suspension of reciprocal port fees between the U.S. and China provided temporary stability for transpacific trade lanes. During this period, vessels calling at ports in both countries were exempt from high additional port charges. Shipping lines' earlier avoidance measures—such as vessel swaps and fleet restructuring—were paused, easing cost pressures on transpacific ocean freight. Container rates returned to a more rational range, directly benefiting Chinese exporters to the U.S. market.
However, significant uncertainty remains regarding policy direction after the suspension ends. Should port fees resume, shipping companies would face substantially higher operating costs, potentially passing these expenses downstream through rate adjustments and surcharges. Carriers would need to significantly revise their fleet deployment, route planning, and pricing strategies. Some vessels may again alter their port calls or route structures to mitigate cost pressures.
For the global liner industry, this cost inflection point could reshape competition beyond short-term rate impacts. Major carriers may respond by optimizing network designs, adjusting capacity deployment, and strengthening alliance cooperation. Smaller and mid-sized carriers, however, face greater operational challenges. Market concentration may increase further, accelerating shifts in the competitive landscape.
Exporters should proactively monitor policy developments and prepare for potential logistics cost volatility. We recommend closely tracking progress on U.S.-China port fee policies, maintaining open communication with forwarders and carriers to stay informed about rate changes and route adjustments. For long-term contracts, consider securing cargo space and rates before policy implementation takes effect, or reduce risk by diversifying discharge ports and optimizing transport solutions.
In summary, the expiration of the U.S.-China port fee suspension represents a key risk node for the global shipping market in 2026. Regardless of the final policy outcome, the liner industry will face renewed cost restructuring and structural realignment. Companies should develop contingency plans in advance, enhancing supply chain resilience and flexibility to navigate potential rate fluctuations and route changes.